The effect of climate change on wind-wave directional spectra

Through assessment of wind-wave directional spectra, we provide a comprehensive explanation the projected 21st Century changes in global climatology under high green-house emissions scenario. Using seven-member wave climate projection ensemble, estimate by comparing present and climatologies. Clustering techniques are applied to define regional patterns change with homogenous behavior. The underlying mechanisms behind also explored exploiting relationship between generation area effective energy flux propagating toward target location. A robust transition from positive negative trends Southern Ocean westerly swells is observed around 45°S. increasing signal found southernmost propagates north beyond 30°N, contributing significantly tropical regions such as southern Atlantic southeastern Pacific. Results highlight great complexity Pacific due convergence multiple systems different geneses. In northern basins, combined effect ice melting poleward shift storm track drives an increase northernmost swells. This countered decreasing trend main North Ocean. trade-induced waves Hadley cell expansion can be globally, causing clear dipole pattern Indian oceans.